I was interested to read the article by Beghi et al
1
published in the April 2018 issue of Archives. The authors aimed to compare the risk of falls and fall predictors in patients with
Parkinson disease (PD), multiple sclerosis (MS), and stroke. They included a total
of 299 patients as follows: PD (n=94), MS (n=111), and stroke (n=94). They applied
functional scales to investigate balance, disability, daily performance, self-confidence
with balance, and social integration. Patients were followed for 6 months. Kaplan-Meier
survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used. The authors reported
that risk of falls was associated with disease type (PD, MS, and stroke, in decreasing
order) and confidence with balance (Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale).
They additionally reported that injured fallers were 3%, 8%, and 12% at 2, 4, and
6 months, respectively. The only predictor of falls with injuries was disease type
(PD).
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The authors concluded that PD, MS, and stroke carry a high risk of falls. Other predictors
included perceived balance confidence and high education level.To read this article in full you will need to make a payment
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References
- Prediction of falls in subjects suffering from Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis, and stroke.Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 2018; 99: 641-651
- Epidemiology beyond the basics.2nd ed. Jones and Bartlett, New York2007
- Clinical epidemiology: principles, methods, and applications for clinical research.2nd ed. Jones and Bartlett, Burlington2015
- Prediction of 3-dimensional pharyngeal airway changes after orthognathic surgery: a methodological issue.Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop. 2015; 147: 8
- Prediction of preterm delivery using levels of VEGF and leptin in amniotic fluid from the second trimester: prediction rules.Arch Gynecol Obstet. 2015; 291: 719
- Predictive value of confocal scanning laser for the onset of visual field loss.Ophthalmology. 2013; 120: e31-e32
Article info
Footnotes
Disclosures: none.
Identification
Copyright
© 2018 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine
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Access this article on ScienceDirectLinked Article
- Response to Letter “Prediction of Falls in Subjects Suffering From Parkinson Disease, Multiple Sclerosis, and Stroke: Methodologic Issues”Archives of Physical Medicine and RehabilitationVol. 99Issue 8
- PreviewWe agree that the results of our study1 are not appropriate for the prediction of an outcome, if prediction is intended as the process of applying a statistical model to the data, with the purpose of predicting new or future observations. When constructing a predictive model, the independent variables (predictors) should be selected based on the ability of the model to provide valid predictions (internal validity).2-4 We understand that after a predictive model is developed, a fundamental issue is to verify the performance of the model when applied to a new population.
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