Abstract
Objective
Design
Setting
Participants
Interventions
Main Outcome Measures
Results
Conclusions
Keywords
List of abbreviations:
ADL (activities of daily living), CHESS (Changes in Health, End-Stage Disease, and Signs and Symptoms Scale), CI (confidence interval), CPS (Cognitive Performance Scale), DRS (Depression Rating Scale), HR (hazard ratio), IADL (instrumental activities of daily living), MSK (musculoskeletal), OR (odds ratio), OT (occupational therapy), PT (physiotherapy), RAI-HC (Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care)Commission on the Future of Health Care in Canada (Romanow commission). Building on values: the future of health care in Canada. Saskatoon: Commission on the Future of Health Care in Canada; 2002. Available at: http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/CP32-85-2002E.pdf. Accessed July 12, 2012.
Ontario Health Coalition. Still waiting: an assessment of Ontario’s home care system after two decades of restructuring. Toronto: Ontario Health Coalition; 2011. Available at: www.web.net/∼ohc/homecare2011finalreport.pdf. Accessed July 12, 2012.
Hollander M, Chappell N. Final report of the national evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of home care. Victoria: Hollander Analytical Services Ltd, University of Victoria Centre on Aging; 2002. Available at: http://www.coag.uvic.ca/resources/publications/reports/hollander_synthesis.pdf. Accessed July 12, 2012.
Ontario Health Coalition. Still waiting: an assessment of Ontario’s home care system after two decades of restructuring. Toronto: Ontario Health Coalition; 2011. Available at: www.web.net/∼ohc/homecare2011finalreport.pdf. Accessed July 12, 2012.
Hepburn B. Health care in Ontario is cracking under stress. Toronto Star 2010 August 5. Available at: http://www.thestar.com/article/844049-hepburn-health-care-in-ontario-is-cracking-under-stress. Accessed September 30, 2010.
Hepburn B. Health care in Ontario is cracking under stress. Toronto Star 2010 August 5. Available at: http://www.thestar.com/article/844049-hepburn-health-care-in-ontario-is-cracking-under-stress. Accessed September 30, 2010.
Methods
Source of data
Steps in Dataset Construction | No. of Patients | No. of Assessments | No. of Patient-Admissions | |
---|---|---|---|---|
To get outcome and covariates of interest: | ||||
Total in RAI-HC assessments data file | 414,546 | 1,043,700 | ||
No. of patients with missing covariates of interest | 25,603 | |||
Remove patients with missing covariates of interest and remove duplicate entries based on patient ID and assessment date. | 388,943 | 980,590 | (1) | |
To get discharge/death information: | ||||
Total in admission and discharge records data file | 898,783 | 1,901,526 | ||
Remove duplicate entries based on patient ID, referral date, admission date, discharge date, discharge reason, and assessment outcome. | 898,783 | 1,705,586 | ||
Remove entries without discharge date. | 750,662 | 1,114,550 | ||
Further remove duplicate entries based on patient ID and discharge date. | 750,662 | 1,078,273 | (2) | |
To determine whether a patient received PT or OT: | ||||
Total in service records data file | 859,671 | 79,233,196 | ||
Keep entries where type of service provided = 5 or 6. | 378,487 | 2,981,352 | (3) | |
To combine information from different data files: | ||||
Combine (2) and (3) first. | 802,235 | 4,059,625 | ||
Keep entries where discharge reason ID is not missing and discharge reason ID ≥0. | 750,662 | 1,078,273 | ||
Remove patients who have no entries in (1). | 241,790 | 412,765 | ||
Remove any discharge information collected before the first RAI-HC assessment date. | 225,920 | 355,160 | (4) | |
Then, combine (1) and (4). | 388,943 | 1,335,750 | ||
Remove observations that occur after first death entry. | 388,943 | 1,332,546 | ||
Remove back-to-back discharge entries. | 388,943 | 1,262,178 | ||
Remove patients with only 1 entry. | 305,349 | 1,178,584 | ||
Remove patient-admission with only 1 entry. | 305,349 | 1,152,514 | 362,403 | (5) |
Take (5) | ||||
Keep patients who met the MSK criteria. | 175,866 | 689,272 | 209,741 | |
Keep patient-admission with at least 2 entries. | 99,764 | 237,557 | 110,497 |
Statistical methods

where if , then the transition probability is given by
and the probability of remaining in state k is
where .
where measures the trend in the transition probabilities over time and hence allows for time nonhomogeneous transition probabilities. If one adds an interaction between and , then the effect of the covariates can change over time. This expanded model is most useful for checking the adequacy of the reduced model in equation 1, within which constant covariate effects are assumed.
Results
Covariate | Domain | Initial State | Overall (N=99,764) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State 1 (n=4553) | State 2 (n=66,762) | State 3 (n=28,449) | |||
Sex | Men | 1310 (28.8) | 15,189 (22.8) | 8704 (30.6) | 25,203 (25.3) |
Women | 3243 (71.2) | 51,573 (77.2) | 19,745 (69.4) | 74,561 (74.7) | |
Age group (y) | Age <65 | 1056 (23.2) | 7583 (11.4) | 2955 (10.4) | 11,594 (11.6) |
65≤ Age <75 | 906 (19.9) | 10,675 (16.0) | 4385 (15.4) | 15,966 (16.0) | |
75≤ Age <85 | 1798 (39.5) | 28,443 (42.6) | 11437 (40.2) | 41,678 (41.8) | |
Age ≥85 | 793 (17.4) | 20,061 (30.0) | 9672 (34.0) | 30,526 (30.6) | |
Baseline ADL Scale | Scale = 0 | 4542 (99.8) | 66,419 (99.5) | 570 (2.0) | 71,531 (71.7) |
Scale ≥1 | 11 (0.2) | 343 (0.5) | 27,879 (98.0) | 28,233 (28.3) | |
Falls frequency group | No fall | 3584 (78.7) | 44,880 (67.2) | 15,288 (53.7) | 63,752 (63.9) |
1 falls | 629 (13.8) | 13.448 (20.1) | 7100 (25.0) | 21,177 (21.2) | |
≥2 falls | 340 (7.5) | 8434 (12.6) | 6061 (21.3) | 14,835 (14.9) | |
CHESS | Scale = 0 | 2379(52.3) | 20,919 (31.3) | 5719 (20.1) | 29,017 (29.1) |
Scale = 1–2 | 2057 (45.2) | 39,320 (58.9) | 17,637 (62.0) | 59,014 (59.2) | |
Scale ≥3 | 117 (2.6) | 6523 (9.8) | 5093 (17.9) | 11,733 (11.8) | |
CPS | Scale = 0 | 3525 (77.4) | 42,157 (63.1) | 10,060 (35.4) | 55,742 (55.9) |
Scale = 1–2 | 1019 (22.4) | 23,039 (34.5) | 12,521 (44.0) | 36,579 (36.7) | |
Scale ≥3 | 9 (0.2) | 1566 (2.3) | 5868 (20.6) | 7443 (7.5) | |
DRS | Scale = 0 | 3362 (73.8) | 44,573 (66.8) | 16,109 (56.6) | 64,044 (64.2) |
Scale = 1–2 | 773 (17.0) | 14,034 (21.0) | 7189 (25.3) | 21,996 (22.0) | |
Scale = 3–5 | 287 (6.3) | 5914 (8.9) | 3587 (12.6) | 9788 (9.8) | |
Scale ≥6 | 131 (2.9) | 2241 (3.4) | 1564 (5.5) | 3936 (3.9) | |
No. of days per week going out of home (last 3d) | ≥1d | 4435 (97.4) | 59,147 (88.6) | 19,316 (67.9) | 82,898 (83.1) |
No day | 118 (2.6) | 7615 (11.4) | 9133 (32.1) | 16,866 (16.9) | |
Hours of exercise in last 3d | ≥2h | 4228 (92.9) | 54,869 (82.2) | 17,259 (60.7) | 76,356 (76.5) |
<2h | 325 (7.1) | 11,893 (17.8) | 11,190 (39.3) | 23,408 (23.5) | |
PT/OT status | No | 4153 (91.2) | 55,430 (83.0) | 21,963 (77.2) | 81,546 (81.7) |
Yes | 400 (8.8) | 11,332 (17.0) | 6486 (22.8) | 18,218 (18.3) |
Current State | Next State | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State 1 | State 2 | State 3 | State 4 | State 5 | State 6 | |
State 1 | NA | 1.03 (0.83–1.28), .8131 | 1.48 (0.93–2.37), .0964 | 1.57 (1.27–1.94), <.0001 | 1.18 (0.84–1.64), .3337 | 1.38 (0.72–2.65), .3384 |
State 2 | 1.36 (1.14–1.61), .0005 | NA | 0.99 (0.94–1.05), .8378 | 1.65 (1.57–1.72), <.0001 | 1.04 (0.98–1.09), .1725 | 0.92 (0.83–1.01), .0934 |
State 3 | 1.17 (0.75–1.83), .4759 | 1.17 (1.10–1.26), <.0001 | NA | 1.32 (1.22–1.42), <.0001 | 0.74 (0.70–0.79), <.0001 | 0.81 (0.74–0.89), <.0001 |

Covariate | State 4 | State 5 | State 6 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RR | 95% CI | P | Global, P | RR | 95% CI | P | Global, P | RR | 95% CI | P | Global, P | |
ADL state: 2 vs 1 | 0.469 | 0.444–0.495 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.178 | 1.076–1.290 | .0004 | < .0001 | 1.213 | 0.996–1.477 | .0546 | <.0001 |
ADL state: 3 vs 1 | 0.382 | 0.352–0.415 | <.0001 | 3.012 | 0.822–3.409 | <.0001 | 3.470 | 2.830–4.255 | <.0001 | |||
65≤ Age <75 vs age <65 | 0.746 | 0.712–0.782 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.243 | 1.179–1.310 | <.0001 | < .0001 | 1.160 | 1.049–1.282 | .0037 | <.0001 |
75≤ Age <85 vs age <65 | 0.581 | 0.558–0.605 | <.0001 | 1.493 | 1.425–1.563 | <.0001 | 1.209 | 1.106–1.322 | <.0001 | |||
85≤ Age vs age <65 | 0.467 | 0.446–0.489 | <.0001 | 1.741 | 1.660–1.825 | <.0001 | 1.853 | 2.693–2.028 | <.0001 | |||
Sex: female vs male | 0.833 | 0.806–0.861 | <.0001 | 0.882 | 0.858–0.906 | <.0001 | 0.641 | 0.610–0.673 | <.0001 | |||
ADL score: ≥1 vs 0 | 0.932 | 0.873–0.994 | .0333 | 0.584 | 0.563–0.605 | <.0001 | 0.670 | 0.624–0.718 | <.0001 | |||
Falls: 1 vs 0 | 1.222 | 0.180–1.266 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.153 | 1.121–1.187 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.028 | 0.970–1.088 | .3522 | .4892 |
Falls ≥2 vs 0 | 1.043 | 0.999–1.089 | .0572 | 1.238 | 1.199–1.278 | <.0001 | 0.983 | 0.921–1.050 | .6144 | |||
CHESS: 1–2 vs 0 | 1.250 | 1.209–1.293 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.217 | 1.185–1.250 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.371 | 1.296–1.451 | <.0001 | <.0001 |
CHESS: ≥3 vs 0 | 1.228 | 1.162–1.298 | <.0001 | 1.403 | 1.348–1.461 | <.0001 | 2.119 | 1.966–2.283 | <.0001 | |||
CPS: 1–2 vs 0 | 0.899 | 0.870–0.929 | <.0001 | < .0001 | 1.366 | 1.332–1.401 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 0.951 | 0.904–1.001 | .0537 | .0015 |
CPS: ≥3 vs 0 | 0.735 | 0.680–0.794 | <.0001 | 1.528 | 1.464–1.594 | <.0001 | 1.092 | 1.008–1.184 | .0320 | |||
DRS: 1–2 vs 0 | 1.035 | 0.999–1.073 | .0578 | .1671 | 1.062 | 1.032–1.092 | <.0001 | <.0001 | 1.008 | 0.953–1.065 | .7876 | .0023 |
DRS: 3–5 vs 0 | 0.998 | 0.949–1.050 | .9528 | 1.125 | 1.083–1.169 | <.0001 | 0.909 | 0.839–0.985 | .0203 | |||
DRS: ≥6 vs 0 | 1.052 | 0.977–1.133 | .1802 | 1.106 | 1.044–1.173 | .0007 | 0.822 | 0.724–0.933 | .0024 | |||
Charlson Crosswalk Comorbidity Index | 0.929 | 0.919–0.939 | <.0001 | 1.051 | 1.042–1.059 | <.0001 | 1.226 | 1.208–1.244 | <.0001 | |||
No. of days per week going out of the home (last 30d): 0d vs ≥1d | 0.936 | 0.895–0.978 | .0031 | 1.173 | 1.138–1.209 | <.0001 | 1.479 | 1.400–1.563 | <.0001 | |||
Hours of exercise in last 30d (last 3d): <2h vs ≥2h | 0.986 | 0.950–1.023 | .4641 | 0.993 | 0.966–1.021 | .6310 | 1.212 | 1.151–1.277 | <.0001 | |||
PT/OT vs none | 1.498 | 1.447–1.550 | <.0001 | 0.926 | 0.897–0.956 | <.0001 | 0.905 | 0.851–0.964 | .0017 |
Discussion
Study limitations
Conclusions
Suppliers
- a.SAS version 9.1.3; SAS Institute Inc, 100 SAS Campus Dr, Cary, NC 27513-2424.
- b.R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Version 2.10.1. R-Development Core Team. The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, c/o Institute for Statistics and Mathematics, Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, Augasse 2-6, 1090 Vienna, Austria. Available at: http://www.R-project.org.
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Article Info
Publication History
Footnotes
Supported by an operating grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant no. 114354 ).
No commercial party having a direct financial interest in the results of the research supporting this article has or will confer a benefit on the authors or on any organization with which the authors are associated.